By Leeds vs Tottenham, Saturday 12.30pm
The smart play here is backing Spurs from set-pieces. Leeds have already shipped four goals from dead balls and concede 1.7 set-piece shots per game. Tottenham, meanwhile, are thriving under Thomas Frank’s routines, with clever blocks and delayed runs creating chaos. Micky van de Ven, with three goals already this season, looks value at 33/1 to score first
Best Bet: Van de Ven anytime scorer
Score Prediction: 2-2
Arsenal vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm
Eberechi Eze brings the chaos Arsenal often lack in attack, and his direct style is translating into shots on target, with Arsenal giving him the platform to attack, expect him to see plenty of the ball in dangerous areas. He’s managed 2+ shots on target in each of his last two starts, and backing him to hit that line again looks a strong angle.
Best Bet: Eze 2+ shots on target
Score Prediction: 2-0
Manchester United vs Sunderland, Saturday 3pm
Don’t be deceived by United’s league best xG, most of their chances come when chasing games after poor defending. They’ve already spent 244 minutes trailing this season, their defence is among the worst in the league, and much of their chance creation has come once games were effectively lost. The market still prices them short, but the value sits with Sunderland, who look well placed to avoid defeat.
Best Bet: Sunderland Double Chance
Score Prediction: 1-2
Chelsea vs Liverpool, Saturday 5.30pm
The market expects goals, but the smarter angle is a low-scoring affair. Arne Slot’s Liverpool are focusing on control and defensive stability, while Chelsea lack spark without Cole Palmer. All signs point to a careful battle at Stamford Bridge.
Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Score Prediction: 1-1
Aston Villa vs Burnley, Sunday 2pm
Burnley’s new signing Florentino looks a strong pick in the fouls market. The Burnley midfielder averaged nearly two fouls per game last season, and has already committed three in his first two Premier League starts, and now faces a Villa side that regularly draws fouls in midfield. Expect him to be busy breaking up play.
Best Bet: Florentino 2+ fouls
Score Prediction: 2-1
Everton vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm
Palace look exciting this season, but European football is likely to take its toll. Clubs outside the big six often struggle to balance both, with an average league drop of over six places the following year. After a midweek trip abroad, Palace could be vulnerable, making Everton the value play at Goodison.
Best Bet: Everton to Win
Score Prediction: 2-1
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm
Sandro Tonali stands out as Newcastle’s biggest midfield goal threat. At St James’ Park, he plays with more freedom, often arriving late into attacks. He’s scored five in his last 17 home starts, averaging 1.6 shots per game and clearing 2+ shots in seven of his last 11. The value is in backing his attacking output.
Best Bet: Tonali 2+ shots / Anytime Scorer
Score Prediction: 3-1
Wolves vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm
Brighton odds-on away from home looks wrong. They’ve conceded 1.6 xG per game across their last 13 matches, with just one clean sheet in 18. Their pressing has lost its edge and defensively they look fragile. Wolves are not spectacular, but they are organised, combative and capable of disrupting Brighton’s rhythm. The value is with the hosts.
Brentford vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm
The fouls market offers real value here. Jeremy Doku is in devastating form, completing close to five dribbles a game and drawing 13 fouls in his last five starts. Up against him, Michael Kayode is raw and aggressive in defence and is likely to struggle one on one, making him prime for multiple fouls.
Best Bet: Kayode 2+ fouls
Score Prediction: Man City 3-1
