By YAOUNDE, Oct. 6 (AfrikTimes) — Announcing his bid for an eighth term in July, Cameroon’s 92-year-old president, Paul Biya, said he was responding to “numerous and insistent” calls to remain in office. But this year’s election cycle has also featured growing appeals for him to step aside.
Finally, the president’s daughter, 27-year-old Brenda Biya, said on TikTok last month that her father “has made too many people suffer” and urged Cameroonians to vote him out. Though she later retracted the statement, the video continues to circulate widely among Biya’s critics.
Despite mounting criticism, along with a host of security and economic challenges, the world’s oldest head of state still stands a strong chance of victory when the cocoa- and oil-producing Central African nation heads to the polls on October 12.
Analysts say Biya remains bolstered by the same factors that have sustained his rule for more than four decades: an entrenched patronage system, flawed electoral institutions, a loyal military, and a deeply divided opposition.
President John F. Kennedy visits with President of Cameroon, Ahmadou Ahidjo, and others upon President Ahidjo’s arrival at the White House for a luncheon in his honor. L-R: Naval Aide to President Kennedy, Captain Tazewell Shepard; US Chief of Protocol, Angier Biddle Duke; President Kennedy; President Ahidjo; Federal Minister of Foreign Affairs of Cameroon, Jean Faustin Betayene. North Portico, White House, Washington, D.C. Circa 13 March 1962.
“The president has managed to enforce loyalty to himself and the system… Very few people in the ruling system are willing to put their heads above the parapet” to challenge him, said Arrey Ntui, senior analyst for the International Crisis Group, the conflict-prevention organisation. “When it comes to the president, there is no more independent thinking. It is just a one-line story: The president is there, he’s able to run again, that’s it.”
HEALTH FEARS LOOM OVER CAMPAIGN
Biya has held a tight grip on power since taking over as president in 1982 from his one-time mentor Ahmadou Ahidjo, whom he sidelined and forced into exile. He survived a coup attempt in 1984 and a stiff challenge during Cameroon’s first multi-party elections in 1992, when he won 40% of the vote, just 3 percentage points more than the runner-up.
In 2008, Biya signed a constitutional amendment removing a two-term limit for the presidency. He went on to win by comfortable margins in elections in 2011 and 2018, dismissing his opponents’ complaints of ballot stuffing and intimidation.
Biya’s biggest obstacle this time around could be his own health, which has long been a source of speculation, including last year when he disappeared from public view for 42 days. The government has dismissed the health concerns as “pure fantasy”, though last year it also banned public discussion of the topic.
Meanwhile, Cameroonians continue to grapple daily with poor access to basic amenities, from roads and water to electricity and waste management.
DOUBTS RAISED OVER VOTE’S FAIRNESS
These vulnerabilities, however, could be offset by his government’s ability to control how the election plays out.
In July, a court disqualified the candidacy of Maurice Kamto, Biya’s main rival who finished second in the 2018 election, ruling that the party he registered to represent had already endorsed another candidate. Human Rights Watch said the decision “raises concerns about the credibility of the electoral process.”
Kamto denounced the 2018 election result as fraudulent and was arrested in January 2019 after leading protests which security forces dispersed with live bullets. He faced insurrection charges before a military court which his lawyers said could have carried the death penalty, though he was released in October 2019.
Arrest, or the threat of arrest, has long helped keep the opposition weak. Cameroonian officials say they are simply enforcing the country’s laws.
Fear of legal trouble for speaking out goes well beyond the political class, said Raoul Sumo Tayo, senior researcher with the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies think tank.
“When you take a taxi in Cameroon, you don’t know who exactly is the driver. People are afraid to speak,” he said, describing the perceived ubiquity of intelligence agents. “Everybody in Cameroon wants to see their children grow, and so many stay quiet, and it empowers the regime.”
