By Forecasters said the storm was expected to continue growing stronger and larger before approaching the Gulf Coast late on Thursday.
Here is the latest update on the storm:
Helene continues to move north through the Caribbean Sea, intensifying into a hurricane as of Wednesday morning. Forecasters predict it will bring heavy rainfall to Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula and western Cuba before shifting toward Florida’s Gulf Coast.
While the forecast is still evolving, the storm could strengthen to a Category 3 or higher before making landfall late Thursday. Forecasters warn that Helene’s large size could cause widespread impacts across a broad region.
Caroline Conner, general manager of Cigar Paradise on St. Armands Circle in Sarasota, gets some help from her boyfriend, Jake Wright, installing hurricane storm panels on the front of the business in advance of Hurricane Helene on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024. Mike Lang / Sarasota Herald-Tribune
Here’s what you need to know:
– Many forecast models show the storm making landfall late Thursday near Florida’s Big Bend Coast, a relatively unpopulated area that has already experienced two major storms in the past year: Hurricane Idalia in August 2023 and Hurricane Debby just last month.
– As of Tuesday, at least 13 Florida counties have issued evacuation orders, and Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency in 61 of Florida’s 67 counties. “There’s still a lot of uncertainty,” he said, urging residents to begin preparations immediately. New storm surge and hurricane watches and warnings were issued for Florida’s Gulf Coast on Tuesday afternoon, indicating those conditions are expected within the next 36 to 48 hours.
– Before entering the Gulf of Mexico, Helene is expected to pass between Cuba and Mexico early Wednesday, bringing 4 to 8 inches of rain to western Cuba and 4 to 6 inches to eastern Yucatán, where a hurricane warning is currently in effect.
– This hurricane season had been forecasted to be exceptionally active, but much of August and September saw a lull in activity. However, storm activity has increased significantly in recent weeks.
Tropical Storm Helene is forecast to become a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in the Panhandle or Big Bend region late Thursday. National Hurricane Center.
Here is how the forecast is developing:
When Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 officially became Tropical Storm Helene on Tuesday morning, forecasters who had been monitoring the storm’s development from a cluster of thunderstorms in the western Caribbean Sea were able to gather more information about Helene’s potential growth and its likely path. The center of Helene was identified late Tuesday morning, which significantly impacts the accuracy of the storm’s forecast track.
With a more precise location to start from, forecasters and computer models gained greater confidence in predicting that Helene will likely become a major hurricane before making landfall along Florida’s Big Bend.
Gov. Ron DeSantis on Monday declared a state of emergency for 41 counties as a storm system is expected to rapidly grow into a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
However, the storm’s center may shift and wobble before it strengthens into a hurricane, according to John Cangialosi, a senior hurricane specialist with the National Weather Service. While the track guidance from weather models shows a closely clustered path—usually indicating strong confidence—there is still a possibility that the entire forecast could shift slightly east or west.
Forecasters cautioned on Tuesday that it’s important to be prepared for these changes. Some models suggest Helene may weaken and track west, while others project a stronger storm heading east. Most, however, indicate a middle ground, pointing toward Florida’s Big Bend as the likely target. All possibilities are still in play, and a high-altitude hurricane hunter flight took off from Florida on Tuesday afternoon to gather data on the steering currents, which will inform future computer model updates.
The National Hurricane Centre has reported a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico due to Possible Hurricane Helene, which could bring heavy rains to Central America. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm John has formed in the eastern Pacific Ocean and may cause flooding in southern Mexico later this week.
Helene is expected to become a major hurricane, potentially reaching Category 3 or higher, with wind speeds of at least 111 mph. However, this intensity could change, with some models forecasting a stronger storm and others predicting a weaker hurricane or even a tropical storm. One thing forecaster are becoming increasingly confident in, Mr. Cangialosi noted, is that Helene will be an exceptionally large hurricane, similar in size to storms like Irma and Katrina, both of which caused extensive damage. This means the effects of storm surge, wind, and rainfall will extend far beyond the storm’s center, especially on its eastern side.
A storm of this size could pose significant risks to large populations, such as those in the Tampa Bay area, which might experience damaging winds and storm surge not seen during Hurricane Idalia in 2023. Idalia, though similar in track and intensity to Helene, was much smaller. Helene’s large size also means that damaging winds may reach farther inland, affecting cities like Tallahassee. Helene, like Francine a few weeks ago, faces a deadline. If the storm doesn’t strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday morning, it may not have enough time to reach Category 3 strength before making landfall.
Tropical Storm Helene is intensifying in the Caribbean Sea and is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday. According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm is projected to make landfall in Florida on Thursday evening, prompting evacuations and emergency declarations. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening storm surges are anticipated along the Gulf Coast.
On Tuesday, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis warned about the uncertainty in the forecast models. “It’s important that people don’t get too focused on these cones,” he said, noting that even areas outside the projected path could experience major impacts. Speaking from the state’s emergency operations center in Tallahassee, Gov. DeSantis emphasized that the National Hurricane Center’s projection of a major hurricane—Category 3 or higher—before the storm had even formed suggested rapid intensification in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
“There’s still a lot of uncertainty,” he said, urging Floridians to begin preparing for the storm immediately. “People should just be aware that this is coming.”
Up in the air with the hurricane hunters.
There’s no in-flight entertainment, but my hosts in blue flight suits assure me I’m in for quite a show. I’ve been advised to avoid gassy foods, and the location of the sick bag has been pointed out. I’m about to take off aboard one of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) hurricane hunter aircraft, nicknamed Kermit. This WP-3D Orion turboprop is one of two such planes operated by NOAA out of Lakeland, Florida. Kermit is older than I am, having flown through its first hurricane in 1976, and its belly bears the names of more than a hundred storms it has encountered.
The Air Force Reserve’s 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, along with NOAA, flies these hurricanes hunter planes directly into or over active storms. At the same time Kermit is in the storm, another of their aircraft will be flying at 5,000 feet, while we cruise at 10,000 feet. Meanwhile, an upper-altitude plane called Gonzo will be even higher, gathering data on the upper-level winds.
Tropical Storm Helene which formed in the Caribbean Sea could strengthen into a major hurricane while moving north toward the US, forecasters have said.
This afternoon’s mission is to pinpoint the exact location of the storm’s center, analyze its structure, and determine whether it’s starting to take on the characteristics of a hurricane. The data gathered will be crucial in predicting just how powerful the storm could become by Wednesday.
Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks on safety and preparations ahead of Helene
