Bonds Slide, Stocks Dip as U.S. Election Approaches

SINGAPORE, Oct. 22 – Asian stocks turned lower, and the dollar stood by multi-month peaks on Tuesday as a sharp sell-off in bonds and a jump in gold suggested investors are hunkering down ahead of the U.S. election.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose by 11 basis points overnight, with an additional 1 basis point increase in early Asian trading, bringing them to 4.19%. Gold hit a record high of just over $2,740 an ounce on Monday and traded at $2,725 early on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei index (.N225) slid 1.1% in morning trade to hit its lowest level since early October. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.8%.

Wall Street indices edged down overnight, and futures inched lower in Asia. A sharp rebound in oil prices – which can flow through to inflation – probably helped unsettle bond markets, said ANZ strategist Jack Chambers, along with the U.S. election, now only two weeks away, coming into view.

“A secondary consideration could be a bit more focus on the U.S. election and fiscal dynamics,” Chambers said. “Regardless of who wins, you can’t really see a path to fiscal consolidation.”

A visitor stands next to an electronic screen displaying Japan’s Nikkei stock prices quotation board as the average surged past an all-time record high scaled in December 1989, inside a building in Tokyo, Japan February 22, 2024. REUTERS/Issei Kato.

Brent crude futures climbed 1.7% on Monday, with no letup in Middle East fighting following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Prices steadied at $73.89 per barrel in Asia.

In Australia, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) was down more than 1.3% by mid-morning. Shares in independent grocer Metcash (MTS.AX), slid 6% after a Goldman Sachs report cut the stock price target and said the company risks losing market share.

China’s markets were pinned well below recent highs while traders wait for more details and especially more government urgency and spending to support the ailing economy. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index (.HSI) and the Shanghai Composite index (.SSEC) were both flat. In foreign exchange markets, movements in Treasuries sent the dollar higher. The euro traded at $1.0819, within a whisker of its lowest since early August. The yen sat by a 2-1/2 month low at 150.67 per dollar, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars were also pinned near multi-month lows at $0.6655 and $0.6021 respectively.

Analysts say the dollar’s recent rally reflects markets pricing a Donald Trump victory in the U.S. presidential race and a stronger currency as his trade, tax and immigration policies will likely lead to higher inflation and higher yields.

“With a victory for President Trump now priced into currency markets, AUD/USD has modest rather than large downside risk from when the election results start to be released,” said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso in a note. “With Vice President Harris now the underdog, the market reaction to her victory would likely be larger than a victory by President Trump,” he added.

With a relatively light economic data calendar, attention has shifted to U.S. corporate earnings for insights into the economy and markets’ mood. General Motors, Texas Instruments, Verizon, Lockheed Martin, and 3M are among those reporting on Tuesday.