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NPFL: Title Contenders, Continental Tickets, and Relegations. What Do the Stats Foretell in Coming Fixtures?

NPFL: Title Contenders, Continental Tickets, and Relegations. What Do the Stats Foretell in Coming Fixtures?
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Round 35 of the Nigeria Premier Football League (NPFL) delivered several decisive comeback moments as the season draws to a close. Noticeably, all the matches in this round were played on Sunday, April 19. This approach deviates from the usual two-day fixtures spread.

The early kickoff featured Wikki Tourists on the home turf at the Abubakar Tawafa Balewa Stadium against Bendel Insurance. While home advantage has always been a fortress for NPFL teams, it failed Wikki Tourists as they fell 2-1. In another encounter, Plateau United were held to a 1-1 draw at home by Kun Khalifat, who are currently struggling in the relegation zone.

Abia Warriors stunned Ikorodu City in a tightly contested 2-1 first-half encounter. This victory pulled Abia Warriors level on points (55) with Ikorodu City, though the latter maintains third place thanks to a six-goal superior difference. Following a goalless home draw in matchday 34, Shooting Stars travelled to face El-kanemi Warriors in Maiduguri, Borno state, despite an unfavourable away record. The first half saw the host take a narrow 1-0 lead. However, the momentum shifted just thirteen seconds into the second-half when Qamar Adegoke, a half-time substitute, latched onto a long range assist from his goalkeeper, Godsgift, and slotted it past the opposition goalkeeper to provide a leveller. Adegoke wasn’t finished. He eventually scored a late winner in the 86th minute to secure a vital away win for Shooting Stars.

In a decisive derby, Enugu Rangers came from behind to secure all three points in a 2-1 victory against Enyimba. This win gives them a slim lead at the top of the table with just a single point ahead of Rivers United.

Rivers United, on the other hand, could not secure a point in their away fixture against Kano Pillars. Ahmed Musa, the former Super Eagles captain, provided an assist in the 81st minute before scoring the decisive goal himself with a bullet header inside the box. Although Rivers United levelled in the 90th minute, it was not enough to withstand the pressure from a Kano Pillars side fighting for maximum points. The game ended 2-1 in favour of Pillars.

Elsewhere, Katsina United emerged with a 3-2 victory over Bayelsa United, while Kwara United also registered all 3 points against Barau. Nasarawa United stays fifth on the log following a commanding 3-0 home win over Warri Wolves.

Following a 3-0 responding victory over Niger Tornadoes, Remo Stars have climbed to 16th place. This win moves the defending champions just one spot clear of the relegation zone.

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Current standing on the table.

With just three rounds remaining in the 2025/2026 League session, there is no clear favourite to lift the title, clinch continental tickets, or escape relegation. A primary factor in this uncertainty is the general inability of teams to gather maximum points away from home. Consequently, teams rely heavily on their home turfs to secure the wins; when the advantage fails, the results are catastrophic. The trend has handicapped many teams from advancing in points. Teams unable to defend their home turfs while struggling on the road are the ones now languishing at the bottom of the table.

The Records don’t lie: Bendel Insurance, currently 7th, holds the best away record in the league, recording four wins, six draws, and eight losses in eighteen away fixtures for a total of 18 points, They are followed by Abia Warriors with 16 points (5 wins, 1 draw, 11 losses) in 17 away fixtures. Interestingly, league leaders Enugu Rangers have won only twice and drawn seven times in seventeen (17) away encounters. Niger Tornadoes, El-kanemi, and Remo stars have the lowest away returns with 5,5, and 4 points respectively.

Conversely, home fixtures provide the bulk of the points. Rangers and Rivers United have recorded 46 and 44 points in 18 and 17 home matches, respectively. Kun Khalifat recorded the lowest home return with 27 points (8 wins, 3 draws) in 17 encounters. Remo Stars boast 39 points at home, winning 12 and drawing 3 of their 18 home matches.

Going by this trend, it might be difficult for teams with a heavy away schedule remaining to claim the title, secure continent spots, or guarantee relegation safety. Enugu Rangers play their next two matches on both home and  away grounds. The first is an away match against 19th-placed Bayelsa United and the second is an home match against Bendel Insurance. While Bayelsa United may seem overmatched on paper, they are expected to stand their ground at home. El-kanemi Warriors also have a clear away record in the league.

The outlook looks similar for Rivers United, as they play their next two games both on home and away soil. Their first against Abia Warriors might prove tasking, as they face the team with the second-best away record, yet home teams almost always hold the upper hand. Their subsequent match against Willi Tourist will see them battle on away ground.

In the same vein, third-place Ikorodu City will also play their next two at home against relegation-threatened Wikki Tourists and away against Katsina United. On the other hand, Abia Warriors face difficult trips to Rivers United after which they will welcome  Kum Khalifat. Shooting Stars play both coming fixtures at home against Nasarawa and Barau.

In the relegation zone, El-kanemi (43 points) Kun Khalifat (40 points), Bayelsa United (40 points) and Wikki Tourist (40 points) will play matches both at home and away

As the league reaches its climax, one thing is clear: teams playing at home will utilize every advantage to secure points, while those on the road must fight tooth and nail to survive. The situation is incredibly “dicey” for Enugu Rangers’ title hopes, Ikorodu City’s CAF Confederation Cup ambitions, and the chances of escaping the drop.

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Ogundare Oluwatayo is a news reporter for AfrikTimes, where he covers politics, sports, education, and other relevant updates.

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